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Regular Research Article 24 Jul 2013
Received: 12 May 2013 – Accepted: 01 Jul 2013 – Published: 24 Jul 2013 Abstract. Seismic events are recorded by instruments, historical notes and
observational criteria in geology and archaeology. Those records form a
pattern of events. From these patterns, we may assess the future seismic
hazard. The time window of a recorded pattern and its completeness set the
frames of the assessments. Whilst instrumental records in seismology only
cover decades up to a century, archaeoseismology covers thousands of years
and palaeoseismology tens of thousands of years. In Sweden, covered by ice
during the Last Ice Age, the palaeoseismic data cover some 13 000 yr. The
nuclear industries in Sweden and Finland claim that the high-level nuclear
waste can be buried in the bedrock under full safety for, at least, 100 000 yr.
It seems hard, if on the whole possible, to make such assessments
from the short periods of pattern recognition in seismology (<100 yr)
and palaeoseismology (~13 000 yr). All assessments seem
to become meaningless, maybe even misleading. In this situation, we must
restrict ourselves from making too optimistic an assessment. As some sort of
minimum level of the seismic hazard, one may multiply the recorded seismic
hazard over the past 10 000 yr by 10, in order to cover the required
minimum time of isolation of the toxic waste from the biosphere of 100 000 yr.
Citation: Mörner, N.-A.: Patterns in seismology and palaeoseismology, and their application in long-term hazard assessments – the Swedish case in view of nuclear waste management, Pattern Recogn. Phys., 1, 75-89, doi:10.5194/prp-1-75-2013, 2013.
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